NOT EVEN CLOSE.

Don't let Drudge fool you, this election isn't based on National Polls, it's based off states and the Electoral College. And it's not even close. Not by a long shot.



George W. Bush won Montana by 20 points in his re-election victory four years ago. But it seems the times have changed in the state.

CNN's new Electoral College map, updated Sunday morning, moves Montana from "lean John McCain" to "toss up." The move is partially based on our new CNN Poll of Polls in Montana, compiled Friday, which suggests McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, has a one-point lead over his Democratic rival Barack Obama, 46 percent to 45 percent. Nine percent of voters are undecided.

"The fact that Montana is up for grabs has to be extremely unsettling for the McCain campaign," said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Montana's usually a reliably Republican state in presidential campaigns. It's been won by the Democrats only twice in the past half century. If you're a Republican and you're fighting for Montana in the last few days of the campaign, you're not in good shape."

Three electoral votes are at stake in Montana, a state Obama visited in late August. McCain has not campaigned in Montana during the general election.

With Montana moving to "toss-up," CNN estimates that if the election were held today, Obama would win states worth 291 electoral votes — more than enough to capture the White House

McCain would take states worth 157 electoral votes, while states worth a combined total of 90 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.